Influential Mentions Aren’t the Same as Word Of Mouth Returns

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True reach through word of mouth

Earlier this week, I took a look at why the social influencer – as identified by the likes of Klout, Kred, etc – isn’t anywhere near as valuable as an Instigator.

The post created a great discussion (which is still ongoing) around both sides of the coin, and whether it was just a case of semantics or if an Instigator was the true “influencer”.

I just wanted to expand on that a bit more, especially on why the influencer marketing model (as it currently stands) may be even more worthless (at least as far as real results go).

The Reach Effect

Looking at how Klout sells the “benefits” of its service, it attracts brands by selling them the golden ticket of putting their product or service in front of Klout’s army of influencers.

After all, the social web is built on who’s the most influential, right? The more followers, the more reach – the more reach, the more action. Eh – maybe not.

Reach is one of the most overrated metrics around. While saying “Reach 200,000 consumers” might sound great to a brand, it’s a bullshit metric. It’s assuming all 200,000 followers of a Twitter influencer, for example, are online at a given time, waiting to see that one awesome tweet about a product.

The other issue with reach is that it’s just a calculated number. Twitter user A only has 1,000 followers, but the combined number of all the followers that follow Twitter user A and their followers make up the “200,000 consumers” reach. And half of them might be bots.

So, reach is out of the question.

The Return on Perks

Once Klout (and others) have sold an ad campaign to brands, they turn that into Perks (or Rewards). This allows people with a certain score or above to apply to get free stuff – shower gel, cookies, or even a test drive in a new car.

A recent example is car manufacturer Chevrolet, who offered a loan of the newly-launched Sonic to 130 “influencers” with a Klout score of 45 and above. Looking at the results, you’d say it was a success:

  • 16,000 positive mentions online
  • Three discount requests
  • One car sold

As a case in raising awareness, 16,000 mentions isn’t chump change. Or is it?

The cost of a Klout Perk starts at $25,000. Considering Perks can be shampoo giveaways, let’s assume the Chevrolet campaign cost more than $25k. You’ve then got to add gas costs for the loans. And insurance. And sales people’s time for both the test drives and then the follow-up calls. And the discounts offered.

And these are just the basic costs. So, for that one sale that brought around $14k into the Chevrolet coffers, there’s a major negative return sales-wise. And I don’t care what business you’re in, you can’t survive on goodwill mentions alone.

Now, it’s true that a car purchase isn’t an impulse buy – there’s a longer process involved, to compare models, showrooms, offers, and more. So it may be that we’ll see more returns on the Chevrolet campaign. Let’s just hope the 130 people involved actually like the Chevy brand and weren’t just along for the free ride.

The Return on Silence Versus Word of Mouth

Of course, this is all conjecture, since Klout are very quiet when it comes to reporting the financial successes of their Perks programs. Sure, they’ll bleat about having 700,000 Perks across 350 campaigns since launching two years ago, but how many of these resulted in real sales to the brands involved?

If I had 350 campaigns, and even if just 10% of them resulted in positive ROI for the companies involved, I’d be shouting that from the rooftops, to both attract more brands and silence the critics.

Klout’s own silence in this regard is deafening, and can be taken however you wish to view it.

Compare that to true word of mouth campaigns and researched demographics – where the idea of Instigators versus Influencers comes up – and it’s a different story.

Paramount and Super 8

When Paramount was getting ready to launch their big Steven Spielberg and J.J. Abrams collaboration, Super 8, they created a hashtag on Twitter for the event, #Super8Secret. This was to build buzz and awareness for the movie with secret early showings across the U.S.

The result?

  • 9 million impressions in 24 hours (impressive, even for a flawed metric)
  • 150 tweets per minute
  • Over $1 million sales for sneak preview tickets
  • Exceeded Paramount’s expectations for opening weekend sales by more than 50%

Unfortunately, I don’t have the cost of the campaign – but creating a hashtag on Twitter and then letting it run amok is probably less than the instant million dollars it created, never mind the opening weekend sales.

The reason the Paramount effort worked – and offered a profitable financial return as opposed to just mentions and a negative sale – is the audience was eager, targeted, and actual fans of the product (in this case, the joining of Spielberg and Abrams).

They took action from Paramount’s instigation instead of just tweeting about the deal. Compare that to the Klout Chevy Perk, and how that (so far) offered more reactions (loans for free) over actions (one purchase, negative return).

Look Beyond the Numbers

The comparisons and results between Chevy and Paramount shouldn’t come as  surprise, though. Klout puts its partners in front of eyeballs based on their in-house metric, which has shown to be flawed time and time again.

Additionally, Klout creates the profiles on its site – you, as a number, don’t have a say in that unless you opt out. So the numbers they promote to their ad partners is skewed from the start.

A proper marketing campaign, on the other hand – media buy, ad buy, email campaign, social media – integrated and targeted will trump the influencer buzz every time (or pretty much every time).

Because smart marketers look beyond the numbers and look to how their effort contributes to the numbers that matter instead.

Which, at the end of the day, is what really matters, no?

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About Danny

Danny Brown is Chief Technologist at ArCompany, helping clients turn social media intelligence into business results. He’s the co-author of Influence Marketing: How to Create, Manage and Measure Brand Influencers in Social Media Marketing, described as "the book that will change the way we do business today." He’s an award-winning marketer whose delivered results for organizations like Microsoft Canada, BlackBerry, FedEx, Ford Canada and LG Electronics, and his blog is recognized as the #1 marketing blog in the world by HubSpot.

60 comments
DannyBrown
DannyBrown

@swonderlin Thanks Stephanie! :)

swonderlin
swonderlin

@DannyBrown oh sure thing! Excellent post and very timely for something I'm working on.

DannyBrown
DannyBrown

@swonderlin Cool - would love to hear more about that :)

DannyBrown
DannyBrown

@swonderlin Thanks Stephanie! :)

swonderlin
swonderlin

@DannyBrown oh sure thing! Excellent post and very timely for something I'm working on.

DannyBrown
DannyBrown

@swonderlin Cool - would love to hear more about that :)

AdamBritten
AdamBritten

Danny, although I disagreed with most of your points on the original post, I tend to agree more with what you're saying here. I'm tired of social brands using "impressions" or "reach" as a metric; like you said, that implies that all followers are active and online. It's a real vanity number.I do wonder, however, about the $1million ticket sales drawn in from #Super8Secret. Sure, the last click might be attributed to the hashtag, but we don't know how many of these people were already planning on purchasing a ticket. The Twitter promotion could have potentially just gotten them to buy a ticket sooner (which could have been their intent, hopefully leading them to fuel the hype fire about the movie earlier.)I've enjoyed reading your insights on both posts.

Danny Brown
Danny Brown

AdamBritten Hi mate,I guess the way Paramount would look at it is the buzz was set up to push the "unsures" into being an actual pre-sale. If you were to analyze that from an influence/instigation angle, then you'd want to know what the tipping point was - a word, phase, time, person, etc.Get that info and you get closer to the messaging and actions required before someone says yes.

AdamBritten
AdamBritten like.author.displayName 1 Like

Danny, although I disagreed with most of your points on the original post, I tend to agree more with what you're saying here. I'm tired of social brands using "impressions" or "reach" as a metric; like you said, that implies that all followers are active and online. It's a real vanity number.

I do wonder, however, about the $1million ticket sales drawn in from #Super8Secret. Sure, the last click might be attributed to the hashtag, but we don't know how many of these people were already planning on purchasing a ticket. The Twitter promotion could have potentially just gotten them to buy a ticket sooner (which could have been their intent, hopefully leading them to fuel the hype fire about the movie earlier.)

I've enjoyed reading your insights on both posts.

Danny Brown
Danny Brown moderator

@AdamBritten Hi mate,

I guess the way Paramount would look at it is the buzz was set up to push the "unsures" into being an actual pre-sale. If you were to analyze that from an influence/instigation angle, then you'd want to know what the tipping point was - a word, phase, time, person, etc.

Get that info and you get closer to the messaging and actions required before someone says yes.

Keith West
Keith West

I was able to analyze a Klout related campaign at a major financial services company. End result- absolutely no correlation between a user's Klout score and the liklihood of your content being shared.

Danny Brown
Danny Brown

Keith West Sadly that doesn't surprise me, Keith - are you allowed to share the results/information, or is that private?

Keith West
Keith West like.author.displayName 1 Like

I was able to analyze a Klout related campaign at a major financial services company. End result- absolutely no correlation between a user's Klout score and the liklihood of your content being shared.

Danny Brown
Danny Brown moderator

@Keith West Sadly that doesn't surprise me, Keith - are you allowed to share the results/information, or is that private?

thekencook
thekencook

Very telling Danny. We discuss this topic (the value of a Like, ROI of a RT, etc.) on Social Media Edge almost every week. It's still emerging but work like yours really sheds light on the subject. For my money I'll learn from Chevrolet and the others who through darts at moving footballs, in the dark, in a windstorm. Blessed be the pioneers with large budgets.

Danny Brown
Danny Brown

thekencook Definitely for risk-taking, mate - just as long as there's still some strategy behind it. Look at GM, who blamed Facebook for their poor showing with their ads, when it turns out it was GM's poor marketing (and greed for full branding) that was at fault.I'd be curious to see how successful a more targeted campaign for Chevy would have been, especially given Ford's success with their specific blogger outreach.Cheers, mate!

thekencook
thekencook like.author.displayName 1 Like

Very telling Danny. We discuss this topic (the value of a Like, ROI of a RT, etc.) on Social Media Edge almost every week. It's still emerging but work like yours really sheds light on the subject. For my money I'll learn from Chevrolet and the others who through darts at moving footballs, in the dark, in a windstorm. Blessed be the pioneers with large budgets.

Danny Brown
Danny Brown moderator

@thekencook Definitely for risk-taking, mate - just as long as there's still some strategy behind it. Look at GM, who blamed Facebook for their poor showing with their ads, when it turns out it was GM's poor marketing (and greed for full branding) that was at fault.

I'd be curious to see how successful a more targeted campaign for Chevy would have been, especially given Ford's success with their specific blogger outreach.

Cheers, mate!

Omni DFW Realties
Omni DFW Realties

Social media is overrated. I dont see why would anyone follow the tweets of a particular brand all day. It just is not possible. It is just to brag that X has so many followers. I seriously dont think the followers will follow every tweet.

Danny Brown
Danny Brown

Omni Chaparala - DFW Realties Adding to TheJackB 's thoughts, I'd say it isn't social media that's overrated - it's the hype that the crappy marketers, looking for a quick buck, spread about social media that's overrated.Use it smartly and strategically, and social media can be one of the most powerful tools in your marketing platform.

TheJackB
TheJackB

Omni DFW Realties That is silly and no different from saying that the sun isn't hot because you have never experienced the heat first handSocial media isn't just Twitter, Facebook or blogging. It is a marketing tool that has proven to be very effective.You are probably right about people not reading every tweet that comes through which is why every smart advertiser/marketer understands repetition is important. If you are trying to sell a house in Grapevine or Plano do you run an ad one time and hope that a few buyers show up or do you do a bit more than that. I am guessing the latter and not the former.

Omni Chaparala -  DFW Realties
Omni Chaparala - DFW Realties

Social media is overrated. I dont see why would anyone follow the tweets of a particular brand all day. It just is not possible. It is just to brag that X has so many followers. I seriously dont think the followers will follow every tweet.

Danny Brown
Danny Brown moderator like.author.displayName 1 Like

@Omni Chaparala - DFW Realties Adding to @TheJackB 's thoughts, I'd say it isn't social media that's overrated - it's the hype that the crappy marketers, looking for a quick buck, spread about social media that's overrated.

Use it smartly and strategically, and social media can be one of the most powerful tools in your marketing platform.

TheJackB
TheJackB like.author.displayName 1 Like

@Omni DFW Realties That is silly and no different from saying that the sun isn't hot because you have never experienced the heat first hand

Social media isn't just Twitter, Facebook or blogging. It is a marketing tool that has proven to be very effective.

You are probably right about people not reading every tweet that comes through which is why every smart advertiser/marketer understands repetition is important. 

If you are trying to sell a house in Grapevine or Plano do you run an ad one time and hope that a few buyers show up or do you do a bit more than that. I am guessing the latter and not the former.

HowieSPM
HowieSPM

Dude Klout is the real f-n deal.

HowieG
HowieG like.author.displayName 1 Like

Dude Klout is the real f-n deal.

KRLRose
KRLRose

The Klout model is fundamentally flawed for the reasons you point out. I don;t go for the large follower base because I am looking for quality over quantity. There is no point in having thousands of followers for me. I also don't want my timeline crammed full of low value tweets about yogurt. True influence comes from building a sound relationship. Twitter does not change the fundamentals of human interaction. With a targeted approach, valuable content and in tune relationship management skills a # can be more effective than buying into a perk program. Looking beyond the numbers like you said Danny to how you we drive and contribute to the numbers as marketeers is the critical influence issue.  It is the age old problem of using numbers to validate decisions. It is the same as the Social Media ROI debate that confuses people. People who constantly bleat on about ROI in social media are really hiding behind the smoke screen and building new ivory towers to keep out the masses. Any entrepreneur or marketer worth their golf pants can analyse, develop and define the most apropriate metrics to measure. It's the concrete bunker syndrome built by social media snake oil salesmen to protect their margins. It does not help customers or clients and it does not help enterprises develop a viable strategy to increase their influence. In the end it all comes back to delivering a fantastic product or service and true influence in a market will always will be driven by that fundamental quality and excellence. 

DannyBrown
DannyBrown

KRLRose I think this phrase right here nailed it:"...the fundamentals of human interaction."That's the problem with all these "influencer" tools as they stand, mate - they're primarily scoring based on a script and perceived interactions. But noise doesn't equal interaction.Get the true interactions down - emotions, decisions, trust in certain people more than others - and then we can start to talk about real influence.Cheers, mate!

KRLRose
KRLRose like.author.displayName 1 Like

The Klout model is fundamentally flawed for the reasons you point out. I don;t go for the large follower base because I am looking for quality over quantity. There is no point in having thousands of followers for me. I also don't want my timeline crammed full of low value tweets about yogurt. 

True influence comes from building a sound relationship. Twitter does not change the fundamentals of human interaction. With a targeted approach, valuable content and in tune relationship management skills a # can be more effective than buying into a perk program. Looking beyond the numbers like you said Danny to how you we drive and contribute to the numbers as marketeers is the critical influence issue.  

It is the age old problem of using numbers to validate decisions. It is the same as the Social Media ROI debate that confuses people. People who constantly bleat on about ROI in social media are really hiding behind the smoke screen and building new ivory towers to keep out the masses. Any entrepreneur or marketer worth their golf pants can analyse, develop and define the most apropriate metrics to measure. 

It's the concrete bunker syndrome built by social media snake oil salesmen to protect their margins. It does not help customers or clients and it does not help enterprises develop a viable strategy to increase their influence. In the end it all comes back to delivering a fantastic product or service and true influence in a market will always will be driven by that fundamental quality and excellence. 

Danny Brown
Danny Brown moderator like.author.displayName 1 Like

@KRLRose I think this phrase right here nailed it:

"...the fundamentals of human interaction."

That's the problem with all these "influencer" tools as they stand, mate - they're primarily scoring based on a script and perceived interactions. But noise doesn't equal interaction.

Get the true interactions down - emotions, decisions, trust in certain people more than others - and then we can start to talk about real influence.

Cheers, mate!

ElaineJoli
ElaineJoli

I think Malcolm Gladwell in his book Tipping Point, started this trend toward thinking there were "influencers" ie. certain people that are influencers and that social epidemics are "driven by the efforts of a handful of exceptional people."  Duncan Watts ("Everything is Obvious Once You Know the Answer") has debunked Gladwell's myth in his research and  says, not only is there no such thing as "influencers" but that the more powerful group are normal people, who talk to each other.  He explains how 'measure and react' may be a more interesting strategy than the ever present 'predict and control.'  So, Danny you have hit on the very subject that Duncan Watts was so outraged about - companies putting in time/effort/money going after a group of people that don't exist (and companies that are trying to make Gladwell's now debunked theory true).I have Watts' book review on my blog http://www.elainjoliblog.wordpress.com

DannyBrown
DannyBrown

ElaineJoli That Duncan Watts piece is one of my favourites of the last 5 years. I read The Tipping Point and, while very well researched, I couldn't help but think there were a lot of assumptions in there too.Measure and react makes far more sense than predict and control - especially in this exciting new world we live in. Something Gladwell, for all his smarts, seems unable to grasp. Hey ho. :)

ElaineJoli
ElaineJoli like.author.displayName 1 Like

I think Malcolm Gladwell in his book Tipping Point, started this trend toward thinking there were "influencers" ie. certain people that are influencers and that social epidemics are "driven by the efforts of a handful of exceptional people."  Duncan Watts ("Everything is Obvious Once You Know the Answer") has debunked Gladwell's myth in his research and  says, not only is there no such thing as "influencers" but that the more powerful group are normal people, who talk to each other.  He explains how 'measure and react' may be a more interesting strategy than the ever present 'predict and control.'  So, Danny you have hit on the very subject that Duncan Watts was so outraged about - companies putting in time/effort/money going after a group of people that don't exist (and companies that are trying to make Gladwell's now debunked theory true).

I have Watts' book review on my blog http://www.elainjoliblog.wordpress.com

Danny Brown
Danny Brown moderator like.author.displayName 1 Like

@ElaineJoli That Duncan Watts piece is one of my favourites of the last 5 years. I read The Tipping Point and, while very well researched, I couldn't help but think there were a lot of assumptions in there too.

Measure and react makes far more sense than predict and control - especially in this exciting new world we live in. Something Gladwell, for all his smarts, seems unable to grasp. Hey ho. :)

Daniel Decker
Daniel Decker

Agreed. So easy to fall into the trap of measuring the wrong things. Numbers lie. Engagement is where influence really lives.

Daniel Decker
Daniel Decker like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 2 Like

Agreed. So easy to fall into the trap of measuring the wrong things. Numbers lie. Engagement is where influence really lives.

steveh781
steveh781

I think an important dividing line in promotions is the one relating to the proportion of the movement that is artificial. If you are bribing people to talk well about your product, it is likely to come across as inauthentic. Whereas if you are simply providing support for people to talk about something they honestly feel like talking about organically, that is when it can really take off and come across as the real thing.

DannyBrown
DannyBrown

steveh781 Exactly! When I see Tiger Woods extolling the virtues of Brand X, do I believe he actually uses it in everyday life? No - and trying to make me think he does puts me off. Like you say, promote the shit you really believe in - that's authentic, and that's what makes me want to buy.  

steveh781
steveh781 like.author.displayName 1 Like

I think an important dividing line in promotions is the one relating to the proportion of the movement that is artificial. If you are bribing people to talk well about your product, it is likely to come across as inauthentic. Whereas if you are simply providing support for people to talk about something they honestly feel like talking about organically, that is when it can really take off and come across as the real thing.

Danny Brown
Danny Brown moderator

@steveh781 Exactly! When I see Tiger Woods extolling the virtues of Brand X, do I believe he actually uses it in everyday life? No - and trying to make me think he does puts me off. Like you say, promote the shit you really believe in - that's authentic, and that's what makes me want to buy.  

TheJackB
TheJackB

One of the questions/concerns I have about marketing efforts is whether the brand is willing to devote time to a campaign or if they are going to operate based upon a hard cut off.I have seen a lot of good programs fail because the company wasn't willing to give them time to develop, grow and mature. So when you mention to look beyond the numbers I can't help but think of these and remember how "executives" told me that a campaign was a failure because 30 days didn't turn into 30 sales.You'll note that I didn't talk about the product, audience or cost. That is because it didn't matter. They were so fixed on a narrow perspective they were unwilling to consider what metrics were appropriate and what weren't.I suspect that fear drives many of these decisions.

DannyBrown
DannyBrown

TheJackB That is so true, mate. Often, I think we've caused this ourselves, with the instant action mindset that we say has to happen in social media. Yet the biggest companies have all seen the bigger picture, and that's why they've succeeded.One of the cultures I really admire is the Japanese one - and it's no coincidence that their companies also lead the way in success, due to the longevity factor (both prior and during):http://dannybrown.me/2012/01/11/japanese-business-success/Here's to thinking long-term.

TheJackB
TheJackB like.author.displayName 1 Like

One of the questions/concerns I have about marketing efforts is whether the brand is willing to devote time to a campaign or if they are going to operate based upon a hard cut off.

I have seen a lot of good programs fail because the company wasn't willing to give them time to develop, grow and mature. So when you mention to look beyond the numbers I can't help but think of these and remember how "executives" told me that a campaign was a failure because 30 days didn't turn into 30 sales.

You'll note that I didn't talk about the product, audience or cost. That is because it didn't matter. They were so fixed on a narrow perspective they were unwilling to consider what metrics were appropriate and what weren't.

I suspect that fear drives many of these decisions.

Danny Brown
Danny Brown moderator

@TheJackB That is so true, mate. Often, I think we've caused this ourselves, with the instant action mindset that we say has to happen in social media. Yet the biggest companies have all seen the bigger picture, and that's why they've succeeded.

One of the cultures I really admire is the Japanese one - and it's no coincidence that their companies also lead the way in success, due to the longevity factor (both prior and during):

http://dannybrown.me/2012/01/11/japanese-business-success/

Here's to thinking long-term.

bdorman264
bdorman264

Damn it Danny, leave Klout alone or they are going to come and get my Chevy Sonic. Whoa, talk about a chick magnet...... 

bdorman264
bdorman264 like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 2 Like

Damn it Danny, leave Klout alone or they are going to come and get my Chevy Sonic. Whoa, talk about a chick magnet...... 

Neicolec
Neicolec

I agree with Christina that you've identified a key problem: influence is about more than just reach. If you look at Klout's page describing what they measure (http://klout.com/corp/kscore/), it's all about how many people see, reshare, or respond to your post. The first two are solely about reach. It's certainly true that spreading a message has some value, but it often is not valuable enough. Especially on Twitter, it's so easy to retweet something. And we've gone way too far along the path of assuming that conversation/engagement in and of itself is valuable. We need more than reach. We want to know that our message is reaching the RIGHT people, that the actual content or product is being discussed, that people are sharing and discussing the content in more intimate (email) ways with selected people who are our target customers, and that those people are actually coming back to our websites or otherwise contacting us about the topic. When Klout can demonstrate that and tell you which influencers can offer that return, it will be worthwhile.

DannyBrown
DannyBrown

Neicolec It's interesting that you mention the "real world value" to our online experiences, Neicole. While I can't talk too much at the minute (and I wouldn't want it to appear pushy), one of the things we're currently developing at Jugnoo is the bottom line effect on a social platform engagement.Add to that how that engagement ripples across different platforms, and we're hoping it could be the separator the market is looking for. Time will tell. :)

Neicolec
Neicolec like.author.displayName 1 Like

I agree with Christina that you've identified a key problem: influence is about more than just reach. If you look at Klout's page describing what they measure (http://klout.com/corp/kscore/), it's all about how many people see, reshare, or respond to your post. The first two are solely about reach. It's certainly true that spreading a message has some value, but it often is not valuable enough. Especially on Twitter, it's so easy to retweet something. And we've gone way too far along the path of assuming that conversation/engagement in and of itself is valuable. 

We need more than reach. We want to know that our message is reaching the RIGHT people, that the actual content or product is being discussed, that people are sharing and discussing the content in more intimate (email) ways with selected people who are our target customers, and that those people are actually coming back to our websites or otherwise contacting us about the topic. When Klout can demonstrate that and tell you which influencers can offer that return, it will be worthwhile.

Danny Brown
Danny Brown moderator

@Neicolec It's interesting that you mention the "real world value" to our online experiences, Neicole. While I can't talk too much at the minute (and I wouldn't want it to appear pushy), one of the things we're currently developing at Jugnoo is the bottom line effect on a social platform engagement.

Add to that how that engagement ripples across different platforms, and we're hoping it could be the separator the market is looking for. Time will tell. :)


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